skeptict

A manually curated tracker of global systemic risk across five pillars. Not optimized for engagement — optimized for honesty.

Numbers are approximate. Trends reflect multi-year direction, not week-to-week noise.

Last updated: 2026-08-24

Conflict & Violence

▲ Worsening

59

Active armed conflicts UCDP, 2024 ↗

Air Weapons : American Drone Swarm — strategypage.com
Someone will turn on you : The short life and violent death of an alleged Surrey gang hitman — edmontonexaminer.com
Someone will turn on you : The short life and violent death of an alleged Surrey gang hitman — theprovince.com

~220,000

Conflict deaths (2024) UCDP estimate ↗

US Military Launches Eighth Night of Strikes Against Iran — iranherald.com
US Military Launches Eighth Night of Strikes Against Iran — chinanationalnews.com
US Military Launches Eighth Night of Strikes Against Iran — middleeaststar.com

68.3M

People newly displaced by conflict UNHCR, 2024 ↗

World Humanitarian Day 2026 : Why aid workers face record attacks with little accountability — arabnews.com
When will she be safe ? The continuum of violence in refugee and migrant women lives — mg.co.za
The Ledger of Conditional Universalism — countercurrents.org

Humanitarian Crisis

▲ Worsening

120M+

Forcibly displaced people UNHCR, mid-2024 ↗

282M

People in acute food crisis FSIN, 2024 ↗

AM Edition : Top 10 Politics Articles on LiveNews . co . nz for August 3 , 2026 – Full Text – LiveNews . co . nz — livenews.co.nz
World Famine Authorities Warn Most Gazans Still Suffering Crisi - Level Hunger — antiwar.com
Hunger is falling but is still higher than pre - COVID levels : UN report — Al Jazeera

23

Countries at high risk of deterioration IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 ↗

IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 — International Rescue Committee
ACAPS: countries at risk of humanitarian deterioration — ACAPS
The crises the world is ignoring in 2025 — The Atlantic

Climate & Environment

▲ Worsening

+1.54°C

Temperature anomaly above pre-industrial baseline, 2024 ↗

2024 was the hottest year on record — and the first above 1.5°C — NASA
Copernicus: 2024 global temperature summary — Copernicus Climate Change Service
The year the 1.5°C limit was crossed — The Guardian

~400

Major disaster events (2024) EM-DAT ↗

2025 costliest year on record for wildfires , study finds — aol.co.uk

$320B+

Economic losses from disasters (2024) Munich Re estimate ↗

USDA Extends Supplemental Disaster Relief Program Application Deadline , Announces New Flexibilities for 2023 and 2024 Quality Losses — kltz.com
JD . com , Inc .: JD . com Announces Second Quarter and Interim 2026 Results — finanznachrichten.de
Heatwaves are reducing Spain economic growth by more than 1 % — surinenglish.com

Governance & Instability

▲ Worsening

4

Coups or coup attempts (2024) Powell & Thyne dataset ↗

Releasing the UFO files is not enough , the UFO Trojan Horse Part 1 : Whistleblowers — sott.net
Coup plot trial : Cleric says ₦10m received was for prayers — thesun.ng

283

Internet shutdowns (2024) Access Now ↗

Iran internet shutdown crushes businesses in battered economy — dailybulletin.com
Iran internet shutdown crushes businesses in battered economy — presstelegram.com
Iran internet shutdown crushes businesses in battered economy — redlandsdailyfacts.com

~60

Countries under emergency law ACAPS ↗

ACAPS: Countries in crisis — ACAPS
Emergency powers and democratic backsliding — The Atlantic
V-Dem: Democracy report 2025 — V-Dem Institute

Catastrophic Risk

→ Holding

89 sec

Doomsday Clock to midnight — Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 2025 ↗

85 seconds to midnight – The real reason super powers fear and buy nuclear weapons at the same time — bankingnews.gr
Beyond managed rivalry : The non - nuclear - weapon state perspective on the future of arms control — Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Solving the Climate Crisis Requires Peace , and Peace a Stable Climate – Socialist Project — socialistproject.ca

3

Nuclear states on heightened alert US, Russia, China ↗

Russia War Of Self - Destruction – Analysis – Eurasia Review — eurasiareview.com
Arms control , risk reduction , and the art of the possible — Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
China opaque nuclear - weapon ambitions raise red flags — chinanationalnews.com

~420

Confirmed critical infrastructure attacks (2024) CyberPeace Institute ↗

Health care cyberattacks expose a critical national security failure — kevinmd.com

Meanwhile, not everything is getting worse

Extreme poverty: ~8.5% of world population (down from 36% in 1990)
Child mortality: 38 per 1,000 live births (down from 93 in 1990)
Global literacy rate: ~87% (up from 66% in 1979)
Deaths from infectious disease: declined ~50% since 2000
Ozone layer recovery: on track to full recovery by 2066

Data drawn from UCDP, UNHCR, FSIN, IRC, EM-DAT, Munich Re, Access Now, ACAPS, Powell & Thyne, CyberPeace Institute, and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. All figures approximate. Updated manually — see the repository for change history.